Many analysts have interpreted the 8 January 2017 death of the former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani — one of the leading political figures in the Islamic Republic since the 1979 revolution — as a blow to the moderate political forces for whom he was a mentor and an indispensable figurehead.

Although the death of Rafsanjani will certainly increase factionalism, especially in light of the impending elections in May 2017, it is not in fact clear that it will damage the moderate forces or President Hassan Rohani’s re-election prospects. Iran has a unique political system that consists of multiple bases of power with various checks and balances and a very fluid structure. Rafsanjani was one of the architects of this structure and was also a master of survival within it, though he came close to political insignificance many times over the past two decades.

It is important to understand that Rafsanjani’s informal power was more important than his formal position. One reason was the close relationship Rafsanjani held with Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic, and his long-lasting friendship with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, whom Rafsanjani elevated to the position of supreme leader in 1989. Rafsanjani undoubtedly took the lead in managing bargaining processes within the decision-making councils. Despite many setbacks, his continued influence at the highest levels allowed him to pave the way for a return of moderate forces through Hassan Rohani’s victory in the 2013 presidential election.

Rafsanjani’s footprint is also clearly seen on Rohani’s foreign policy, especially the desire to improve ties with the European Union. Thus the most significant void left by this death is the lack of a moderate deal-maker at the top level of decision making. This will have to be filled by Rohani, especially as long as he holds the presidency.