As 2018 swiftly approaches, Menas is launching annual forecasts to help clients plan for the year ahead.
The Forecast is a new section in each of our publications, providing forward-looking analysis and assessments in these key areas:
- Domestic policy
- International affairs
- Other industry
If you would like to receive the full version of The Forecast: Yemen 2018 then please contact the consultancy team
The Forecast: Yemen 2018
Domestic politics and policy, the overview:
Peace is likely only if one or both of the regimes, respectively controlling the north and south of Yemen, collapse. This would either pave the way for the other side to win, or create a humanitarian disaster on such a scale that it would require an international rescue mission under UN auspices.
Security, the overview:
Al-Qa’ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and Islamic State group (IS) have used the war to increase members, resources and weaponry. They will launch hit-and-run attacks mostly in south and central Yemen but will avoid direct military confrontation with Yemeni counter-terrorist forces which are well-trained by the UAE.
International affairs, the overview:
Saudi Arabia portrays the Huthis as another Iranian-controlled Hezbollah which it will not tolerate on its southern border. Iran will provide support to the Huthis but ensure that it is not enough to expose it to the risk of attack by the Saudis or their Western allies.
Economy and energy, the overview:
The national economy has collapsed and has been replaced in both parts of Yemen by war economies.
War economies have created vested interests on both sides that benefit from the continuation of the war. In some places, these actors co-operate with each other over frontlines.