The election of Donald Trump has sent jitters through the international business community. One reason is the question of whether a Trump administration will fulfill a campaign promise to renegotiate the Iran nuclear deal, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Judging from a recent video in which President-elect Trump outlined his priorities in the first 100 days in office, tearing up the JCPOA is not one of them.

Before analysing the sustainability of the JCPOA, it is necessary to underline that Barack Obama’s approach to the nuclear deal would have probably not have been sustained by a Hillary Clinton administration, either. Nevertheless, the Trump victory has complicated the outlook enormously.

The JCPOA is a UN Security Council–approved multilateral deal that the US establishment considers an important non-proliferation agreement. Therefore, the next US administration will not be in a legal or operational position to amend or annul the deal in its entirety.

News has emerged that EU officials, including President François Hollande of France, have already communicated this point to the Trump camp. If the president-elect tries to do so while Iran remains committed to continued implementation of the deal, the EU will most likely continue its commitment as well. That would automatically isolate Washington as the party that reneged on a multilateral agreement.

Nonetheless, the Trump administration could hamper continued implementation of the deal by keeping international business in suspense about new US sanctions against Iran or against companies investing in Iran.

That would limit the upside of the JCPOA for Iran and might compel Iranian hardliners to push for a discontinuation of the deal. In fact, the mouthpiece of Iran’s hardliners, Kayhan newspaper, has already asked Trump to renege on the agreement and rid Iran of its consequences.

This is an excerpt from an article in our monthly Iran Strategic Focus publication.