Efforts to eliminate the Uganda age bill, which sets age limits for the president, led to chaos both inside and outside of parliament. The current Uganda age bill sets an upper age limit of 75 years for presidential candidates which would prevent President Yoweri Museveni — who is in his 31st year of presidential rule — from standing again in the 2022 elections.

A first attempt at discussing the bill had to be adjourned after extensive heckling by MPs. It is expected that the motion will go through, eventually, while protests will remain a short-term disruption.

Museveni’s unwillingness to step down in 2022 does not come as a great surprise, particularly because there is no clear succession plan in the event of something happening to Museveni, whether it be an accident, an assassination, or a sudden illness.

The opposition Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) has also been worn down by his continued hold on power. Their main candidate, Kizza Besigye, had unsuccessfully challenged Museveni on three consecutive occasions, due to the latter’s use of state resources and machinery in order to stay in power and overwhelm the opposition.

The majority of the population does not expect the president’s voluntary retirement, and there is a widespread, worrying, perception that power only changes by the means of violence, instead of constitutional means.

The recent restrictions of press freedom are also neither surprising, nor new, but do remain a concern. The disruptions in Kampala over the bill are expected to be short term, and unlikely to affect the energy sector substantially, even though this issue will divert the government’s attention from energy sector issues until it is resolved. There will be further delays in the frustratingly slow overall development of the sector, but is unlikely to lead to substantial set-backs.

In the short to medium term, the changes of the bill and Museveni’s continued rule provides stability for investors, including the oil industry, where he has been a key stakeholder in the decision making process over his tenure.

This article was taken from our fortnightly East Africa Politics & Security publication. If you wish to discuss the content of this article, or have any other questions in regards to Uganda then please contact us.