Nigeria’s Niger Delta region is facing a rising trend in oil theft. Pipeline vandalism has more than tripled between September 2017 and January 2018 according to figures from the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation’s (NNPC) January 2018 report (released in May).

From an average of 60 pipeline breaks in January 2017, there were 176 incidents of pipeline damage in December 2017 which rose to 216 by January 2018. Between January 2017 and January 2018, the NNPC recorded a total of 1,336 vandalised points on its pipelines in the Niger Delta.

This rising trend of vandalism and oil theft has coincided with rising oil prices and political manoeuvring ahead of general elections set for February–March 2019. This trend is expected to increase unless the Federal Government is able to successfully negotiate with Niger Delta groups and local political power brokers.

Pipeline breaks are also having an impact on the country’s oil production. The report notes that 163,000 b/d of oil was shut in at the Qua Iboe Terminal during December 2017 because of ‘facility integrity’ issues. Similarly, the Trans Forcados Pipeline (TFP) was shut down from 13-17 December ‘due to a leaking crude theft point’, resulting in the shut in of 120,000 b/d.

Since January, both the TFP and, the Trans Ramos Pipeline have been closed because of leaks suspected to have been caused by oil theft. Export delays from Nigeria and Venezuela were blamed for a 70,000 b/d decline in OPEC’s production figures in May to 32 million b/d. The sabotage of the TFP had forced Shell to declare a force majeure on Bonny Light crude exports on 18 May leading to delayed exports of 190,000 b/d.

The security agencies in the Niger Delta are often complicit in oil theft. The ease with which pipelines are broken and crude oil vessels taken out of the region is only possible with high level collaboration from the security services. This has not gone unnoticed.

The Niger Delta Civil Society coalition staged a protest in Abuja in early June, blaming the leaders of Operation Delta Safe, the military Joint Task Force (JTF) mission tasked with preventing pipeline sabotage.  Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Ibe Kachikwu, has also expressed concern that vessels are able to move in and out of the region’s security corridor to pick up stolen oil despite a JTF presence.

With a deteriorating security situation and unreliable security forces, reliance on private security contractors and local communities may be on the rise.

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