As two strong presidential contenders from the north have emerged to run for Nigeria’s 2019 election, there is an important statistic at the heart of the election season.

No census has been taken since 2006, but the National Population Commission projects that there are 198 million Nigerians with a median age of 17.9 years, meaning that some 99 million people are eligible to vote.

So far, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has registered 74 million voters but hopes to get another 10 million with its continuous biometric registration system before the end of the year. That leaves another 15 million or so votes in play if – and that’s a huge if – the Population Commission’s projections are accurate.

The estimated 25 million unregistered voters should be compared to the total who voted in 2015 – 29 million. In that election, Muhammadu Buhari won 15.4 million votes and his opponent, Goodluck Jonathan, won 12.9 million.

On paper, everything is in play in Nigeria’s 2019 election. The opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) says it intends to run a highly effective voter registration campaign in its political heartland, but whether it has the resources and the organisation to pull it off is in question.

In the wider political arena, the presidential battle is set to be a contest between two veteran northern politicians – the incumbent Buhari, 75, and challenger and former vice president Atiku Abubakar, 71. Both still have to win the nomination of their chosen parties, but Buhari will have an easier time persuading the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) to back him.

To get the PDP nomination, Abubakar would have to outflank several party loyalists, former ministers, and state governors. But as a serial political party hopper – he has joined and quit all the major parties – he has a reputation as a dilettante.

It may be that Abubakar, who completed a successful speaking tour in London in April, will be able to galvanise the PDP on a national and regional level. First, however, he will have to face down the many doubts about his political seriousness and personal integrity.

On that score – personal honesty and reputation – Buhari has a clear advantage. That alone guarantees him over 10 million votes in the north, his advisers insist. It is performance, not personality, that is Buhari’s biggest blight. Some concede he has failed to convince Nigerians of progress on the three crucial fronts: security, corruption, and economic growth.

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