The ruling Frelimo party MPs unanimously voted against the proposal by the opposition Renamo party to create six autonomous provinces in the areas where Renamo won the most votes in the October 2014 election. These autonomous provinces would have been ruled by Renamo and appeared to Frelimo as an attempt to blatantly grab power. Menas Associates’ Mozambique Politics & Security outlined how the rapid defeat of the bill appears to be a victory for the G40 group, whose members remain loyal to the previous president Armando Guebuza.

Many observers had expected Renamo’s proposal to be debated for days, if not weeks, in the parliament, as Frelimo and Renamo traded amendments to the bill and put off a decision for as long as possible. But in a country where even the simplest decisions often take a long time to resolve, this one – which seemed set to lead either to a radical reconfiguration of the country, or to a return to civil war – was concluded in a day.

The immediate rejection of a proposal, which Nyusi had promised would be taken seriously by the Frelimo-led parliament, seems suspiciously like a victory for the so-called ‘G40’. This is an informal group of former president Armando Guebuza loyalists who, through the media and other means, discredit Frelimo’s opponents and promote the party and Guebuza, and which – along with Guebuza – seems irrevocably opposed to ceding any power to Dhlakama (see Mozambique Politics & Security – 10.03.15).

A leading figure in the group is Edson Macuácua, Guebuza’s spokesman when he was president of the country. Macuácua had hoped to be rewarded with a ministerial appointment in Nyusi’s new administration but instead had to settle for the chairmanship of the commission on constitutional affairs – which last week dealt Renamo’s proposal its mortal blow.

Dhlakama himself is of the opinion that the decision to vote down the law was taken by Guebuza’s acolytes on the Frelimo Political Commission, which meets weekly to decide the party’s stance on issues of the day. Their mistake, according to Dhlakama, is that they haven’t thought ahead as to what would happen after the proposal fell.

Under the Guebuza presidency, the favoured method for defeating Renamo had been to destroy the opposition through military means. This method eventually failed, with Renamo emerging as the victor in that particular political battle, and Dhlakama’s popularity increasing.

The G40 group seems at odds with Nyusi’s style of presidency. The new president’s approach is one of attempting to appease Dhlakama – or at least appearing to do so. These divergent approaches (appeasement versus violence) could create splits within the ruling party. Frelimo MPs’ dismissal of the bill without even seeming to consider Renamo’s proposal appears to be a victory for the Guebuza faction over Nyusi’s. This increases the risk that Dhlakama will have to choose between returning to violence or accepting defeat – considering precedent, the former choice appears more likely than the latter, giving hard-line Frelimo members another opportunity to destroy Renamo.