This is an excerpt from an article in our monthly Libya Focus publication.
On 24 December, as Libyans marked the 64th anniversary of their country’s independence from Italian colonial rule, the prime minister of the Government of National Accord (GNA) addressed the nation. The GNA was backed by Libyan participants in the country’s peace process on 17 December. But, although necessary for success, the forceful role that the UN played in suggesting the terms of the deal has touched on shared Libyan sensitivities about their national sovereignty. Away from the peace talks, it’s also the case that militias and movements across Libya remain deeply divided about whether to accept this new government.
Doubtlessly aware of these tensions, the new prime minister for the GNA, Fayez Serraj, gave Libyans and the international community reason for optimism when he spoke on 24 December. In Serraj’s long but poignant statement, he emphasised that what unites Libyans is stronger than what divides them. He said that the fight against terror would be fought for the sake of the aspirations of the 2011 revolution: accountable governance, justice, and peace.
Serraj also articulated the list of challenges that have been mentioned in every international conference on assistance to Libya since 2012: proliferation of conventional weapons across porous borders, institutional development (especially in the justice, security, financial and other public service sectors), and, probably most importantly, the need for a comprehensive national reconciliation process to overcome grievances dating from the Muammar Qadhafi regime and the post-revolution conflict era.
The new GNA was reported to have held its first official meeting on 2 January, and it has been given clear international support. The UN Security Council offered its backing by unanimously passing Resolution 2259 on 23 December, which provided a framework for global security support for Libya while also threatening spoilers with sanctions. The Arab League immediately spoke out in support of the resolution, and Libya’s neighbours have offered the GNA their endorsement.
But all of these endorsements will amount to little if a firm base of local support cannot be agreed. There will continue to be some resistance to the idea of international intervention in Libya. There will also continue to be resistance to the agreement itself on the ground. Some good news came when the Tripoli Revolutionaries Brigade announced their vital support for the GNA, which in theory will relocate and assume control of the country from Tripoli by 17 January. Powerful Misratan militias also seem set to support this relocation of the GNA to the capital. But there were other elements in Tripoli still pushing for the rival ‘Libyan-Libyan’ dialogue process, and other militias in the city have pledged to impede the installation of the GNA.
Divisions between Libya’s two rival parliaments – the House of Representatives and the General National Congress – appeared to remain in place. The House seemed as though it was ready to accept the agreement, but some of its conditions (like the guarantee of a place for General Khalifa Haftar in Libya’s new security apparatus) will prove profoundly alienating to their opponents. The GNA can still succeed, as staunch international support will place pressure on Libya’s divided political and military landscape to either fall into line or face sanctions and exclusion. But the international community must be willing to back its commitments with the force of arms.
