The deteriorating relationship between Prime Minister Fayez Serraj and Central Bank of Libya (CBL) governor Sadiq El-Kabir will aggravate existing tensions within the Tripoli camp. Serraj’s efforts to pressurise el-Kabir will only serve to bring further accusations that he has sold out to Khalifa Haftar. Meanwhile el-Kabir’s detractors will use the spat as further evidence of his determination to run the CBL single-handedly. Thus, while various forces may currently be rallying around el-Kabir and closing ranks against Serraj, the dispute, which looks set to continue, will undermine both parties in the long run.
Although the spat with el-Kabir has elicited further condemnation of Serraj, it is unlikely to be sufficient to prompt an attempt to unseat him. Although Serraj is hardly a popular leader, he still has international backing and, in the absence of any obvious alternative, he is likely to stay put for the time being. He will also have been given a boost by his Government of National Accord’s (GNA) latest military victories.
With the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 now growing, Libya is becoming increasingly concerned about how it will cope with the pandemic. Its health sector remains woefully unprepared for the outbreak and does not have the resources or capacity to be able to deal with it effectively. The ongoing conflict will only further exacerbate the problem.
The GNA’s recent military victory in western Libya has shifted the balance of power on the ground and will provide it with momentum in the continuation of the fight. It still isn’t clear whether it will be able to hold onto the towns that it has captured, but the GNA looks set to launch further attacks on the strategically important Al-Wattiya Air Base, and it has also set Tarhouna in its sights. If it succeeds in taking control of either it would spell disaster for Haftar and mark the beginning of the end of his Tripoli campaign.
However, the Libyan Arab Armed Forces’ (LAAF) foreign backers are not going to sit by and allow his campaign to collapse. Further support from Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia is expected so the conflict may well intensify in the coming weeks.
It is proving increasingly difficult for the UN to find a replacement for its Special Representative to Libya, Ghassan Salamé. There is no clear candidate for the post — after Algeria’s former foreign minister Ramtane Lamamra was knocked out of the running following a US veto — despite the fact that the combination of the escalation of the conflict and the escalating COVID-19 crisis make it even more essential to find a replacement.
There is still no indication that Haftar will lift his blockade of the oil export terminals any time in the near future. The shutdown will continue to devastate the economy and ordinary Libyans are struggling to cope with the fuel shortages that have been caused by the blockade. Despite the economic damage, however, neither side is likely to compromise in the immediate future.
This excerpt is taken from Libya Focus, our monthly intelligence report on Libya. Click here to receive a free sample copy.
