Field Marshall Khalifa Haftar’s actions in both al-Jufra and the southwest of Libya — coming after he seized the oil ports in September — certainly indicate that he is seeking to expand his area of control into the southern region.

This bodes ill for Misrata, which does not have the capacity to control the south while also staying strong on other fronts. Although it has defeated the Islamic State (IS) group in Sirte, Misrata cannot uphold its influence in Tripoli and the south at the same time if it is challenged in a meaningful way. This is prompting a growing belief that Khalifa Haftar intends to either take control of the south or to tie up Misratan forces there as a prelude to making his move on the capital.

There are certainly indications that Khalifa Haftar has Tripoli in his sights. In December his spokesman, Ahmed al-Mismari, declared that the capital would be next, emphasising that the battle to take it would be ‘quick and over in a flash.’ There were also reports in January that Khalifa Haftar’s commander in the west, Idris Mahdi, had regrouped and restructured his forces in preparation for the long-awaited push on Tripoli.

In reality, these forces are not strong enough to actually take the capital. While there are groups loyal to Khalifa Haftar in Zintan and Wershefana, they have always maintained a distance and independence from Khalifa Haftar and have long resisted taking orders from him. It also isn’t clear whether they would disrupt the uneasy peace that has held in much of western Libya for the past year or more.

These forces were shattered by their experience in 2014 when they were pushed out of the capital by Operation Libya Dawn. There is also strong resistance inside the capital toward the Zintanis coming back to take control, even among those Tripolitanians who are more open to Khalifa Haftar.

This is an excerpt from an article in our monthly Libya Focus publication.