It is increasingly likely that Iraq’s elections, due to take place in March 2018, will be postponed. The same is true of the local elections meant to take place this year but which had already been rescheduled to coincide with the parliamentary polls next March.

With the country in chaos and with various components having their own reasons for wishing to delay things, it is now highly likely that these polls will also be postponed.

This month Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi made an official request to the Iraqi Independent High Electoral Commission, asking for a new date for Iraq’s elections to be set. He cited the problems of the security situation in Ninevah, Salahedinne and al-Anbar governorates, as well as the Kurdish independence referendum, as reasons for requesting the delay in both the parliamentary polls and Iraq’s elections.

A postponement would certainly suit many of the main Shia parties, including al-Abadi’s al-Dawa party. These parties feel they are losing popular support because, after so many years in power, they are still failing to deliver on the basics. In addition, some such as the current led by Amar al-Hakim have fractured, weakening their appeal.

The only Shia grouping still able to garner a strong following is the Sadrist current, thanks to the stance and charisma of its leader, Moqtada al-Sadr. Some other Shia parties fear that the Sadrists may end up swallowing some of their support base.

The Sunnis have no great desire to rush into an election. They are just as divided and have yet to put their house in order. The Sunni areas have also been so shattered by the conflict against Islamic State, and so many Sunnis are displaced, that they would rather wait until things settle down a bit before going to the polls.

Furthermore, like the Shia parties, they face decreasing popularity among their own constituencies, who also feel that they have not been well served by Iraq’s political class.

This article was taken from our monthly Iraq & Kurdistan Focus paper. If you wish to discuss the content of this article, or have any other questions in regards to Iraq or Kurdistan then please contact us.