The following article is an extract taken from the full Battle of Mosul story in this months edition of Iraq & Kurdistan Focus. To get this months copy then just click here, and if you want more information regarding the monthly report then just click here.
If the parties involved can stick to the disciplined behaviour they have displayed in the early days of this fight then the prospects for Mosul and Iraq more widely are not as catastrophic as some might fear.
This doesn’t mean things are going to be easy. The fundamental issue remains an array of powerful forces each of which wants to impose its authority over Mosul itself, or parts of Ninevah governorate.
The Kurds are determined to hang on to the areas that were under their control prior to the IS takeover in 2014. Whether they will push beyond these areas is as yet unclear. There appears to be an understanding that they will not do so. The Kurds have made clear that the future status of areas in Ninevah must be agreed among the various parties.
If control of post-IS Mosul is handed to representatives drawn from the city’s ethnic communities, including the Kurds, Erbil might well stick to such an understanding and refrain from a power grab. The Kurds are more likely to focus on holding on to Kirkuk, always the main prize in Kurdish eyes, which they are determined not to relinquish.
The popular mobilisation forces clearly have the potential to create havoc. Their main concern, however, is controlling Tal Afar. They are well aware that they do not have the popular support or any kind of mandate to impose themselves in other areas of Ninevah, including Mosul itself. Any attempt to do so would backfire massively. Providing they can stay out of the battle for Mosul, they may not work as the destructive force that many fear.
What Turkey does will also be critical. If Ankara believes that Iran is gaining traction through the popular mobilisation forces, or if it feels that the Turkoman in Iraq are not being properly protected or represented, it might well move in. Turkey is deeply unhappy about having been left out of this battle and will be watching closely for any excuse to intervene (see below). Such a move would agitate the Iraqi Shia and could lead to an explosive situation.
However, intervening directly in Iraq would be a risky move for President Erdogan and he would almost certainly be stopped by the US, which has already made clear its displeasure at Turkish designs on joining the Mosul battle.
Much of what transpires in Ninevah will depend on the US and how committed it is to staying in Iraq. This will only become clearer once the US presidential elections have been decided. But many Iraqis are hoping that Washington will be able to use its influence to keep a lid on these troublesome actors.
