The international community has rarely appeared so publicly divided on Libya as it did last week. While Italy’s new Ambassador to Libya, Giuseppe Perrone, initiated work for the re-opening the Italian embassy in Tripoli, Russia’s only aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov, made its way from Syrian waters to the Libyan coast for a much-publicised meeting with the renegade Field Marshal, Khalifa Haftar.

He and House speaker Aguila Saleh have been intensifying their engagement with Russian officials since early 2016 as they have attempted to get Moscow’s support for lifting the UN arms embargo against Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA), plus military training and equipment. Russian companies, which have long been shut out of the Libyan market, could win lucrative contracts if Haftar gains more power. If he does eventually take over the country, Russia will both gain a strong counter-terrorism partner, and be able to use the situation to prove that Western efforts to promote regime change to democracy have ultimately failed.

Haftar and his top commanders — Air Force head Sagr Geroushi and Chief of Staff Abdurrazzak Nazhuri — took a helicopter to the Kuznetsov in international waters on 11 January. They met senior Russian defence officials, and reportedly participated in a conference call with Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoygu. Sources with extensive connections to the LNA claimed that the purpose of the visit was for Russia to deliver medical supplies to eastern Libya. The real purpose — potentially including agreements on military cooperation and Russian training to the LNA — was far more significant.

This is an excerpt from an article in our weekly Libya Politics & Security publication.