As 2018 swiftly approaches, Menas is launching annual forecasts to help clients plan for the year ahead.
The Forecast is a new section in each of our publications, providing forward-looking analysis and assessments in these key areas:
- Domestic politics and policy
- Economy
- International affairs
- Security
- Energy
- Other industry
If you would like to receive the full version of The Forecast: Sahara 2018 then please contact the consultancy team
The Forecast: Mauritania 2018
Domestic politics and policy, the overview:
Presidential elections are due in 2019 and President Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz has said that he will step down, as constitutionally required. There is, however, a strong suspicion that he will try to cling on to power.
Security, the overview:
The security situation is far better than in the other Sahel countries, and it is unlikely that jihadism will expand north from the Sahel to Mauritania in 2018.
International affairs, the overview:
Mauritania is more detracted from regional insecurity and therefore is less active in the G5S engagement. France will continue to be the primary international partner in 2018 but the Aziz regime is expected to further isolate the country.
Economy, the overview:
Lower oil prices and regime corruption will damage the economy. This is unlikely to change without a substantial upturn in commodity prices — for oil, gold and iron ore.
Energy, the overview:
2018 will see major progress on the Tortue project’s floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) development which is scheduled for a final investment decision in late 2018.
Other industry, the overview:
Until first gas is produced the two main sectors will continue to be mining and fishing. The former looks to improve in 2018 alongside increased commodity prices.
