Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari’s sickness has, it seems, forced senior political stakeholders to recalibrate their tactics.

In a context in which a large section of the political elite is concerned about dealing with any Niger Delta militants, divisions have emerged over a new deal. Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo and Deputy Petroleum Minister Emmanuel Kachikwu are taking a more pragmatic stance. They are willing to parcel out oil-lifting contracts to companies linked to prominent Delta businesses and politicians, and are also finding a way to license many of the illegal small refineries in the region. The military is currently forcibly closing down these refineries and arresting the operators, which is causing increasing resentment.

This is where some of the policy divisions could start to have implications for political stability, according to National Security Adviser General Babagana Monguno: ‘There are fissures in both of the big parties – APC [All Progressives Congress] and [Peoples Democratic Party] PDP – and people are using these policy issues, which have their own financial implications, to divide the parties further’.

Some of Monguno’s colleagues point out that many politicians in the Niger Delta would stand to gain from a more pragmatic policy towards militants and illegal refineries, although it would also help boost national oil production.

This excerpt has been taken from an article in Menas Associates’ monthly Nigeria Focus publication.