Morocco’s political class is firmly focused on the upcoming elections — general, regional and local — which are all due to take place on 8 September. The parties are fully engaged in campaigning, while pundits are mulling over possible election outcomes. 

Participation was 46% in the 2016 legislative elections but, with trust in the political elite declining, and especially in light of the COVID-19 crisis, turnout is expected to be even lower this year. This is despite the decision to hold all three polls on the same day in order to encourage more Moroccans to cast their votes. 

Yet, regardless of the turnout, there is growing speculation that the era of rule by political Islamism may be at an end. Recent events in Tunisia — where President Kais Saied sacked the prime minister and suspended parliament following widespread protests, in a move widely interpreted as an attack against the Islamist An-Nahda party — do not bode well for Morocco’s ruling Parti de la justice et du développement (PJD). It appears increasingly isolated as the only remaining Islamist party in power across the MENA region which raises further doubts about its ability to secure a third mandate. 

Although many believe that the PJD will come first in the legislative polls — largely due to its superior organisational and mobilising abilities and the divided nature of its political opponents — it is expected to secure around 80 seats compared to the 98 it won in 2016. 

Likely post-election challenges

The PJD is fully aware that it is up against a plethora of challenges that are likely to hamper its performance. 

Firstly, the changed electoral quotient for these polls (Morocco Focus, October 2020) will negatively affect its showing. Secondly, there is broad consensus that its performance in government has been less than stellar. Many Moroccans feel that the PJD-led government hasn’t delivered, especially on socio-economic issues; and for those who are not party stalwarts that are committed to its ideology, rule by political Islam has been a profound disappointment. 

The character of Prime Minister Saadeddine Othmani has not helped. Chosen by the King in 2017 to lead the government after his predecessor Abdelilah Benkirane failed to form a government, Othmani has struggled to make his mark. Lacking Benkirane’s charisma and combative political style, Othmani has gained a reputation for bending to the will of the Palace, disappointing voters and some PJD factions. The party has therefore become part of the furniture and just another political party in what they see as a corrupted and untrustworthy political class. 

Othmani’s willingness to comply with the demands of the Palace over certain issues has also created serious internal ruptures. Especially problematic has been: its willingness to support the normalisation of ties with Israel; and legislation approving the use of cannabis for medicinal and pharmaceutical purposes. 

For a party that came to power on the ticket of Islamism, the PJD has done very little actual Islamicising since it took over, which has further disappointed its more ideologically rigid components. Holding the party together in the face of such divisive policies has proved challenging and will not do the PJD any favours in these polls. 

Moreover, people are looking for a party that can provide a new vision for the country and that can lead it out of the COVID-19 pandemic in a decisive fashion. There are serious question marks among the electorate as to whether the PJD is up to the job at hand. 

Palace will seek to limit the PJD…

Despite Othmani’s more compliant attitude, he has also failed to really ingratiate himself with the Palace or the country’s establishment. There is a general consensus that the elite is fed up with the PJD and that it is unwilling to give it further space. The Palace will be emboldened in this by the fact that there is little fear either that regional or international powers will have any problem if the PJD is squeezed out.

The general impression is that the Palace would prefer the Rassemblement National des Indépendants (RNI) to lead the next government. So much so that the RNI head, Aziz Akhannouch, is claiming at electoral rallies that his party is going to win the polls. Meanwhile, some are speculating that the King wants current finance minister, Mohamed Benchaâboun, who is not actually a member of the RNI but who is close to it, to be prime minister. 

This is somewhat jumping the gun. If, as predicted, the PJD comes first in the elections, then the King will appoint someone from the party to form the government. However, given that the candidate will have just 15 days to do so, things could get particularly tricky for the PJD.  The PJD has an extremely tense relationship with most of the other main political parties, which have repeatedly teamed up against it over recent months. It is also complaining that the other parties are trying to lure some of its candidates away, and are offering them money in order to switch allegiance and stand for them instead. 

…which could result in another blockage?

If these parties decide to make it difficult for the PJD to forge alliances after the polls they could easily prevent the nominated prime minister from forming a government. Therefore, just as occurred with Benkirane after he was nominated in 2016, whoever is selected could end up in another blockage. 

In 2016 the King gave Othmani the chance after Benkirane failed but he may not be so willing to give the PJD a second chance. According to Chapter 42 of the constitution, if the nominee fails to form a government, the King has the right to appoint an alternative who could be a technocrat or who could come from the party that came second which is currently predicted to be the RNI. Therefore, regardless of who wins the polls, the new political equation that will be thrown up is still very much open to question. The situation is still fluid and, while the other parties may have closed ranks against the PJD over recent months, they may yet be persuaded to forge alliances with it after the elections. 

Furthermore, while the PJD is predicted to come first in the polls, there is no guarantee, and voters may opt to punish the party for its failings. Either way, the outcome of the polls will almost certainly result in a shift in the political equation, propelling Morocco into the next phase of its ongoing experiment with multiparty democracy.