This article was taken from our Algeria Politics & Security publication.
Since the start of the country’s economic crisis at the beginning of last year, the main restraint on any serious attempt at reforming Algeria’s public spending has been the fear that changes to the country’s subsidy systems, which make up an estimated 30% of budget expenditure, could lead to nationwide unrest that might threaten the survival of the regime. As Algeria Politics & Security reports, it now seems that there are indeed street protests in Algeria over the government’s anti-austerity programme.
Price hikes were introduced in the New Year as part of a broader programme of austerity, in the context of the impact that low energy prices have had on Algeria’s finances. The first protest against them appears to have been a peaceful march in the coastal Kabyle town of Tigzirt in the wilaya of Tizi Ouzou on 13 January. Protests broke out elsewhere over the following days, but were mostly not reported.
It is clear to us, at least at this stage, that the various protests in Algeria have been disparate and not connected through any sort of national co-ordination. But there have been expressions of support between the demonstrators in each location, notably for the more widely-publicised demonstrations in Oued El-Ma, which turned violent.
Although anger against the government is widespread, and perhaps intensifying, there is also an understanding of why the economy is in such a state of crisis. There is probably also a realisation that there is not much that ordinary Algerians, or perhaps even the government, can do about it. There is fear that violence could easily take the country back into the 1990s or, as the government constantly reminds Algerians, into the sort of chaos being experienced in Syria or Libya. But, as things gets worse in Algeria in terms of living conditions, these sentiments could change very quickly, especially among the younger generation that has little memory of the civil war.
The unrest that attracted most media attention was at Oued El-Ma, a town of some 30,000 inhabitants around 40 km from Batna, where violent clashes broke out on 16 January. Initially, the precise cause of the rioting was not clear, apart from the fact that it was triggered by the government’s decision to move a solar plant factory being built by a Chinese company to another wilaya. Local people saw the solar plant as a means to reduce the town’s rampant unemployment. The decision to move it, without informing or explain it to the town, sparked anger. There was also suspicion that the decision probably involved government corruption at one level or another.
The main point about the Oued El-Ma protest and violence is that it was a single-issue protest and therefore unlikely, at least at this stage, to feed into any wider sort of national protest. However, as we must emphasise, tension and fear over the deteriorating economic situation are widespread and deepening. The situation could change quickly, especially if the security forces make any overly provocative moves. At the moment, with the exception of Oued El-Ma, there are no apparent signs of that happening.
