Nigeria Focus covers the major political, security, economic, and energy events, and provides in-depth coverage of the stories that matter to businesses and international organisations with investments in the country. Whilst its weekly sister publication Nigeria Politics & Security provides analysis of events as they happen, the monthly nature of Nigeria Focus ensures that investors can keep track of who the key players are, and how a government which campaigned on a ticket of ‘Change’ will affect the investment climate. To get your free copy of the publication, click the button below:
The Forecast, 2020
The below is a summary of The Forecast: Nigeria 2020. If you would like to download the full document for free, just click the button below:
Domestic Policy & Politics
With his All Progressives Congress (APC) controllingboth the House of Representatives and the Senate, and ready to back a US$35 billion budget and another US$30 billion in local and international borrowing, President Muhammadu Buhari will have no excuse for failing to implement his programme of economic restructuring and reforming public services.
For the president, the upcoming year will be all about legacy. Having insisted that he will retire gracefully in 2023, he will hit the ground running with a determined implementation plan.
The closure of Nigeria’s land borders is set to continue into the first quarter of 2020 and perhaps for the entire year, given that the strategy has been endorsed by Central Bank governor Godwin Emefiele. Officials nonetheless concede that the closure has not been effective and they will need to step up joint border patrols and the use of surveillance technology.
That is setting Nigeria up for better policing of the frontiers for reasons of both economic and military security.
Year-on-year real GDP growth reached almost 2.3% in the third quarter on the back of an improved oil sector, agriculture, and manufacturing, but Nigeria will fall far short of the federal budget assumption of 3% for 2019 overall and could fall short of the 2.3% overall real growth predicted by the IMF for this year.
Per capita growth will remain negative this year and next, and overall GDP growth is unlikely to meet the 2.5% forecast by the IMF for 2020, let alone the 2020 federal budget target of over 2.9%. Growth in the region of 2% or slightly above appears more likely.
Although Saudi Arabia is bearing the brunt of the latest OPEC/non-OPEC output cuts, Nigeria will stay under pressure to comply fully with respect to its crude oil output. Condensates aside, that leaves little room to raise output in order to increase revenues if OPEC extends the cuts past March.
Oil output and exports will remain vulnerable to pipeline outages, although the reductions experienced in 2016 are not expected. Oil prices are unpredictable, although average 2020 prices are likely to exceed US$60/barrel.
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