Nigeria Focus covers the major political, security, economic, and energy events, and provides in-depth coverage of the stories that matter to businesses and international organisations with investments in the country. Whilst its weekly sister publication Nigeria Politics & Security provides analysis of events as they happen, the monthly nature of Nigeria Focus ensures that investors can keep track of who the key players are, and how a government which campaigned on a ticket of ‘Change’ will affect the investment climate. To get your free copy of the publication, click the button below:
The Forecast, 2018
The below is a summary of The Forecast: Nigeria 2018. If you would like to download the full document for free, just click the button below:
Domestic politics and policy
2018 will begin with an increased focus on politics while policies take a lower priority. President Muhammadu Buhari has made his intention clear to seek re-election. Provided his health does not worsen any time before the elections — which is a reasonable risk looking at the last year — he will be the main candidate for the ruling All Progressives Congress. From the incumbent government’s perspective, the greatest risk remains Buhari’s physical and mental fitness over 2018 and the lead up to the general elections scheduled for February 2019.
There is a risk that as Buhari turns his attention to local political matters in 2018, his much needed authority in the armed forces will wane. There are already signs of a resurgence of corruption in military procurement deals and deepening rivalries between such organisations as the Department of State Security and the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission.
Nigeria’s geographical and population size, complexity, and entrepreneurial energy make it an important ambassador, particularly if political instability in South Africa and Egypt continue their downward trajectory. But Abuja’s diplomatic efforts rarely do justice to the country: its reputation for fraud and grand corruption continue to undermine the immense potential for soft power through film, music, and literature.
The Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) external reserves — which will be in excess of US$40 billion by the end of first quarter of 2018 — will support the CBN’s capacity to continue to bolster the Naira. The external reserves will be further boosted by an additional US$2.5 billion Eurobond issue to be made in 2018 while interest rates in the economy will come down as the Federal Government reduces its domestic borrowing in 2018, helping businesses to borrow at a cheaper rate and also reduce the government’s domestic debt service burden.
Oil & Gas
The government’s plan to sell some of its stakes in Joint Ventures (JVs) with the IOCs will be completed before the end of 2018 because of the government’s urgent need for funds to spend on larger infrastructure projects.
Power supplies will improve in 2018 as most of the generating plants come on stream and are connected to new gas supplies. Azura Power Plant and other plants will add an estimated 1,000MW to the grid.
The banking industry will be weaned off easy money from investing in government securities as the government reduces domestic borrowing. This will force them to adopt innovative ways to lend to the ‘real sector’ of the economy.
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