Libya Focus provides in-depth, monthly analysis of the political, security and economic developments throughout the country, as war and peace negotiations combine to define its future. Its sister publication, Libya Politics & Security, provides a weekly evaluation of events as they happen, whilst Libya Focus uses its monthly perspective to stand back and take stock, providing considered predictions of where developments will lead. To recieve your free copy of the publiation then please click the button below:
The Forecast, 2018
The below is a summary of The Forecast: Libya 2018. If you would like to download the full document for free, just click the button below:
Domestic politics and policy
Libya’s fragmented political scene is unlikely to recover over the next year. The ailing peace process will drag on, with neither the House of Representatives nor the Higher State Council willing to risk walking away or to compromise enough to make progress.
Libya will only progress politically if there is a significant shift in the balance of power on the ground, either by one side making significant military gains or by new alliances being struck that would enable one side to dominate.
Localised violence between powerbrokers can be expected to continue, with Derna, the Oil Crescent, and western Libya (particularly around Tripoli) being flashpoints. The south will also be characterised by ongoing violence and lawlessness.
While Islamic State (IS) has been defeated as a territorial force, its cells will continue to carry out attacks where they can, mainly in central and southern Libya. These cells will seek to target Misratan and other forces that led the campaign to force them out of Sirte. They will also target foreigners and foreign interests where possible.
If no international pressure is brought to bear on regional players, they will carry on stoking the Libyan conflict in their own interests. Egypt and the UAE will support Haftar, while Turkey, and Qatar to a lesser degree, will support his opponents. Algeria and Tunisia will remain neutral and attempt to forge a peaceful solution.
Although the energy sector has seen some improvements over recent months – including increased oil production, renewed investor interest, and greater stability in and around the oil export terminals – the sector remains vulnerable to disruptions and stoppages. The Oil Crescent could be particularly badly hit in this respect.
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