Libya Focus provides in-depth, monthly analysis of the political, security and economic developments throughout the country, as war and peace negotiations combine to define its future. Its sister publication, Libya Politics & Security, provides a weekly evaluation of events as they happen, whilst Libya Focus uses its monthly perspective to stand back and take stock, providing considered predictions of where developments will lead. To recieve your free copy of the publiation then please click the button below:
The Forecast, 2020
The below is a summary of The Forecast: Libya 2020. If you would like to download the full document for free, just click the button below:
Domestic politics & policy
Even if the Berlin process culminates in a conference in mid-January 2020 — that unites domestic and international policy behind a single framework for political reunification — it is unlikely that Libyan government institutions will reunify by the end of 2020. Since April 2019 the Tripoli war has deepened the country’s regional and ideological divisions to the point where it will take years of reconciliation to convince important factions of Libyan society to work together.
The war in Tripoli will probably continue well into 2020 despite significant support for Haftar from the UAE, Russia, Egypt, France, and Sudan and new overt military support from Turkey for his enemies. Civilian casualties from the war will increase with the rising number of foreign fighters involved and any shift of the frontlines closer to Tripoli’s city centre. In fact, the war will most likely spread in Zawiya, Misrata, Sirte, and the Fezzan region.
Western states will continue to struggle to respond to the Libyan war while illiberal states — like Russia, Turkey, the UAE, Egypt, and possibly other interested ones like Qatar — seize the initiative to control Libya’s fate. Without Western leadership on an alternative, peaceful solution to the conflict, failed Libya policy will be a talking point for politicians — including far-right politicians such as Italy’s former interior minister Matteo Salvini and French presidential hopeful Marine Le Pen — to undermine European leadership. European opposition to Turkey’s Libyan policy — including the late 2019 signing of a MoU in which the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) recognised Turkey’s disputed claims in the central Mediterranean — and the 2 January decision by the Turkish parliament to support military intervention in Libya, could provoke Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to unleash a new wave of Syrian migrants on Europe.
As the weather gets hotter and the electricity grid comes under renewed strain with residents and IDPs living in densely populated urban areas, the General Electricity Company of Libya (GECOL) will need to explore new ways to meet electricity demand in 2020. Because oil production has been relatively stable despite the ongoing war, there may be funding available for the GNA to invest in new partnerships with international firms and governments to build out and possibly diversify the electricity grid and power sources.
Latest blog pieces
The presence in Berlin of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and President Trump’s National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien may be a sign of greater US engagement on Libya which is no doubt motivated by Russian and Turkish muscle-flexing. Washington has reportedly been...
Domestic Politics & Policy Even if the Berlin process culminates in a conference in mid-January 2020 — that unites domestic and international policy behind a single framework for political reunification — it is unlikely that Libyan government institutions will...
Dozens of pro-Turkish Syrian mercenaries reportedly landed at the recently re-opened Mitiga Airport on about five flights from Turkey to support Khalifa Haftar’s opponents in Tripoli. Allegedly in reaction — and video evidence purportedly showing Syrian fighters in...