Localised violence between powerbrokers can be expected to continue, with Derna, the Oil Crescent, and western Libya (particularly around Tripoli) being flashpoints. The south will also be characterised by ongoing violence and lawlessness.

While Islamic State (IS) has been defeated as a territorial force, its cells will continue to carry out attacks where they can, mainly in central and southern Libya. These cells will seek to target Misratan and other forces that led the campaign to force them out of Sirte. They will also target foreigners and foreign interests where possible.

If no international pressure is brought to bear on regional players, they will carry on stoking the Libyan conflict in their own interests. Egypt and the UAE will support Haftar, while Turkey, and Qatar to a lesser degree, will support his opponents. Algeria and Tunisia will remain neutral and attempt to forge a peaceful solution.

Although the energy sector has seen some improvements over recent months – including increased oil production, renewed investor interest, and greater stability in and around the oil export terminals – the sector remains vulnerable to disruptions and stoppages. The Oil Crescent could be particularly badly hit in this respect.