Egypt Politics & Security not only records developments as they occur, but also tells you which ones are most relevant for the future. This fortnightly analysis uses personal sources and deep connections within the state to assess the challenges that face the country, as well as the opportunities that it now has. To recieve your free sample copy just fill out the form below:

The Forecast, Q1 2018

The military-dominated regime of President Abdelfattah el-Sisi has a firm grip over both economic management and political expression, whilst confronting significant challenges including security and the need to build an economy strong enough to sustain a rapidly growing population. The below is a summary of The Forecast: Egypt, Q1 2018. If you would like to downlod the full document for free, just click the button below:

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The rise in government debt is a risk and the market would need to see signs that this is beginning to fall early in 2018. Domestic debt is US$ 150 billion and external debt is US$ 65 billion, with total government and Central Bank of Egypt debt standing at EGP 3,872.5 billion (US$ 216.7 billion) at the end of 2017, equivalent to 110% of GDP.

The government and the Central Bank of Egypt will have to show, very quickly, that its interest payments will begin to fall.


The presidential elections scheduled for May will dominate politics in Q1 2018. So far, several candidates who have announced their intention to stand in the election have faced problems. The highest profile is General Ahmed Shafiq, who lost against the Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohamed Morsi in the Presidential election in 2012 and then went into exile in Dubai, and as mentioned previously it is likely that he will announce his withdrawal from the race.


Egypt remains full of soft targets, but the security forces seem more focused on non-threatening individuals — such as secular political activists — as well as NGOs and other groups, rather than on real threats to Egypt’s immediate and long-term security. Therefore, Q1 2018 is likely to see a continuation of the trends in 2017, with sporadic attacks in north Sinai in particular and small, one-off attacks in mainland Egypt along with a constant threat of larger attacks.

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