Algeria

The security situation is currently the least problematic issue facing Algeria. Domestic terrorism is at a near all-time low with Algeria ranking amongst the world’s less dangerous countries as far as terrorism is concerned. Externally the situation in the Sahel will almost certainly deteriorate during 2020 but is unlikely to cause more than peripheral trouble to Algeria’s southern margins. The situation in Libya is becoming increasingly worrying as evidenced by the fact that it was top of the agenda at a meeting of the State Security Council in late December.

The rest of the world is gradually losing interest in Algeria. This is largely because of the political crisis which has engulfed the country for over a year. It has shown Algeria’s friends and partners, especially in the West, that under Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s regime it had descended into little more than a highly corrupt mafia state that was probably best left to its own devices. Consequently, multinational companies outside the oil sector had begun to give the country a wide berth.

While the political crisis could conceivably be resolved quite quickly the same cannot be said for ether the economy or the energy sector. Oil production and hydrocarbon revenues are both likely to continue to fall unless there is a major and long-lasting upturn in world oil prices. The bind facing the energy sector is that domestic demand is increasing faster than production so Algeria gradually has less oil to export.  This situation has been exacerbated by the government’s many years of ostrich-like navel-gazing in which its extensive renewable energy sources have been virtually ignored.