Breakfast Briefing: Algeria’s unpredictable future: political, economic and investment scenarios


These audio and slides are from the basis of ‘Algeria’s unpredictable future: political, economic and investment scenarios’ … an hour-long briefing by Jeremy Keenan on 10 May 2018.

Some of the areas the presentation addressed, were:

  • What are the most and least likely political scenarios?
  • What are the security risks from domestic social unrest and regional terrorism?
  • What are the most and least likely scenarios for the economy and the hydrocarbon sector?
  • In this uncertain and unpredictable environment, what are the risks and opportunities for foreign investors?
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The following text sets the context in which the briefing was given. 

Algeria’s economy has been severely damaged by the post-2014 fall in oil prices. The authorities are seeking to address the crisis by ‘printing money’, contrary to the IMF’s advice, which could have disastrous consequences.

Algeria also has another major challenge, presented by the political vacuum at the centre of power. The country is effectively run by a secretive cabal composed of the incapacitated President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s immediate family and a tight-knit, corrupt, clientelist entourage. With a presidential election scheduled for May 2019 the paramount question is: Who will succeed to the Presidency?


Jeremy Keenan – is a recognised expert on the Sahara-Sahel and Algeria, where he began his studies in 1964, Jeremy Keenan has around 350 publications to his name, including 10 books. He is a recognised authority on the regions political and security situation and briefs the British and US governments, the EU, UN, NATO, several international agencies and numerous media organisations (BBC, RFI, France24, VOA, Reuters, etc.).


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