The defection of another key member of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has increased fears that Nigeria may soon become a one-party state. Femi Fani-Kayode, a long-time critic of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), defected and claimed that he was joining the APC to help unite the country. He is the fourth key PDP member to defect in the past year. 

The APC’s interim national committee chairman, Mai Mala Buni, has developed a persuasive strategy that has led to a stampede for the exit door from the PDP. Its aim is to build a national party that will be in a position to retain power after President Muhammadu Buhari leaves office in 2023. Buni is leading this campaign and it is succeeding in emptying the senior membership of the main opposition by doing so. 

The PDP looks set to lose at least one more governor either before, or soon after, the end of the year. Bauchi State’s Governor Bala Mohammed is the most likely to defect in order to enhance his chances of winning a second-term. There is also speculation that two other PDP governors — Oyo State’s Seyi Makinde and Enugu’ State’s Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi — could leave the party but this is less certain. 

An even bigger defection could hit the PDP. Although he continues to deny them, there have been persistent rumours in the media that former President Goodluck Jonathan could also join the APC. Jonathan, who has not been really active in the PDP, is being lured with an offer of an APC presidential ticket but this is only likely if President Muhammadu Buhari strongly endorses the offer. 

The current stampede out of the PDP is, however, unlikely to lead to the creation of a one-party state. The APC also has its own internal difficulties which could even lead to a string of defections in the opposite direction in the coming months. This is likely to happen after the APC’s forthcoming national convention or once the party chooses its own presidential candidates, with the unsuccessful candidates seeking an alternative platform.