Ultimately for Ankara, however, the prospect of an independent Kurdish state and the repercussions that would have on its efforts to contain its own Kurdish population will trump all other considerations.

On top of this, Turkey has a strong sense of responsibility towards Iraq’s Turkoman population, which has historically had an antagonistic relationship with the Kurds and is adamant that it does not want to be absorbed into an independent Kurdish state or live under Kurdish rule. The inclusion in the referendum of Kirkuk — which has a significant Turkoman population — was another red line for Ankara.

Turkey was incensed that the referendum was also held in Tuz Khurmato, which has a large Turkoman component that considers the town to be historically theirs.

Given these considerations it is likely that, unless Erbil decides to back down, Turkey will push ahead with imposing at least some sanctions on the region. Iraqi analysts have speculated that Ankara will probably start by placing restrictions on how much oil the Kurds can export through the pipeline to Ceyhan. It may also refuse to transfer export revenues. What Turkey does beyond that is still open to
question. However, a complete blockade on oil exports, or some sort of showdown in the form of a military incursion into the current Kurdish region is not unthinkable.

A miscalculation?

It is therefore clear that — despite all the bravado on Masoud Barzani’s part — the Kurds may well have miscalculated over this referendum. The region may soon find itself plunged into an even greater financial crisis.

Barzani apparently told a journalist prior to the vote that “We would prefer to die of starvation than to live under the oppression and occupation of others. If this decision is made by referendum and the reaction is to isolate us, let our people die.” The Kurds cannot live on nationalist sentiment alone, however.

The referendum has highlighted one of the Kurds’ main challenges: the region is reliant on others for its survival. In particular, any serious rupture of relations with Turkey will put everything achieved so far in jeopardy. It seems that in their rush to capitalise on the territorial gains they made during the fight against Islamic State, the Kurds may have misread the situation and made a move that will cost both them and Iraq more widely very dear.

The same is true for Barzani himself. Although the Kurdish president may be feeling a sense of triumph at having pulled off the referendum — strengthening his own position within the Kurdish region — he has also damaged his standing and credibility in the eyes of the international community. This can hardly help his long-term aspiration for Kurdish independence.

It looks as though the Kurds will have little choice but to back down and try to brush the referendum off as little more than their way of trying to pressure Baghdad into meeting their demands. If they do not go down that path, the consequences could be very grave.