The Algerian government’s new economic plan has been the subject of a two-day conference and the major focus of the past week’s news. The conference, held at Algiers’ Centre International de Conférences (CIC) on 18-19 August, was addressed by President Abdelmadjid Tebboune.

Most of the plan’s proposals are laudable and urgently needed but they are also long overdue. They should have been implemented when former president Abdelaziz Bouteflika first came to office in 1999 when the economy was in much better shape.  The problem currently facing the regime is whether there is sufficient time for the implementation of the plan because — with the country’s foreign exchange reserves likely to be exhausted in about 18 months — it looks highly improbable.

When the FOREX reserves — which have already fallen from almost US$200 billion in 2014 to the current US$44 billion — eventually runs out at the end of 2021 or in early 2022 the country will technically be bankrupt. Unsurprisingly, the regime is denying such an eventuality because it will effectively mean the loss of its last remaining credibility and legitimacy. The debate is therefore likely to be over the form of its collapse.

This is a key question that Tebboune refuses to address or perhaps, politically, cannot yet do so. Instead, like King Canute, he is adamant that he will not resort to debt. ‘We are not on our knees’, he told the conference, adding: ‘We are not suffocating, which is why I categorically reject the idea of resorting to the IMF or the World Bank. I even refuse the idea of indebtedness to brother or friendly countries. I don’t borrow. Sovereignty will remain intact.’ Such an ostrich-like position is understandable given the political consequences. But the writing is on the wall because sooner or later his beloved national sovereignty will have to be sacrificed if bankruptcy is to be avoided.

Meanwhile the past week has seen the re-opening of: mosques that have more than 1,000 places; beaches; public parks; restaurants; cafés; and other such public places. Public health measures are still to be strictly enforced with police and civil protection patrols maintaining tight surveillance. Fortunately, the anticipated second wave of COVID-19 has not materialised and the official number of new daily infections is continuing to decline. All the signs are that, unlike the situation during Eid el-Fitr some ten weeks earlier, people observed the health regulations measures during Eid el Kabir.

The recent sentencing of the journalist, Khaled Drareni, to an unprecedented three years imprisonment is still eliciting strong reactions both within Algeria and abroad. His sentencing marks an increase of state repression and sends a clear message to Algerians that the regime will brook no opposition. President Tebboune has also made it abundantly clear that he is unwilling to enter into any sort of dialogue with the Hirak nor countenance any sort of political reform along the lines that the majority of Algerians are demanding. The country appears to be entering an even more repressive and dangerous state.