Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dabaiba, Egypt, Russia, and the ‘Greens’

Libya

Published on Monday, 1 March 2021 Back to articles

One of the Government of National Accord’s (GNA) often-cited shortcomings was its failure to incorporate those Libyan groups, tribes, and individuals who remained loyal to former leader Muammar Qadhafi, and who fought for his regime during the civil war which followed the 2011 uprisings. If they could afford to do so, many of these elements — popularly known as the ‘Greens’, and more derisively as tahloob (algae) — moved to Egypt after Qadhafi was overthrown and agitated from outside the country. The new Government of National Unity’s (GNU) Prime Minister designate Abdulhamid Dabaiba has reportedly been courted such groups and, in contrast to the GNA, promised to include them if they are capable of appealing to the broader Libyan public.

Qadhafi’s ‘Green Flag’ supporters

The Greens currently have a number of factors in their favour. They can count on a significant base of tribal support that goes far beyond Qadhafi’s inner circle. They also have major connections with the international oil and trading companies as well as other influential investors who view Libya as a potential goldmine. Many Libyans —although reluctant to publicly admit it — increasingly look back at the stability and relative prosperity of the later Qadhafi years with some nostalgia, even if they fervently supported the 2011 revolution. 

Such nostalgia, combined with a growing ‘amnesia’ about the extreme repression that characterised Qadhafi’s rule, is a common feature of many post-authoritarian political transitions after the initial euphoria of change wears off. East Europeans, for example, began expressing nostalgia for Communism not long after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 when they faced economic hardship and uncertainty associated with newly-instituted capitalism. In Libya’s case the post-Qadhafi period has been full of not just economic hardship but also war, displacement, corruption, and endless insecurity. The fact that there has not been a massive public outcry about the close association of Dabaiba and other members of the new executive with the Qadhafi regime is a sign of how far public opinion has shifted on this matter.

The Qadhafi loyalists can also count on the support of powerful external actors who are opposed to political Islam and see them as guarantors of stability. Russia — which has tried to revive the political fortunes of Qadhafi’s son and former heir-apparent, Saif al-Islam Qadhafi, in recent years — would also warmly welcome a greater role for the Greens. Egypt, which has hosted many Greens over the past decade, would like to see them play a prominent role in the GNU and President Abdelfattah el-Sisi undoubtedly pressed Dabaiba on this when he visited Cairo earlier this month. Dabaiba, in turn, has many links to the Egyptian business community from the Qadhafi days and, by extension, to the many wealthy Greens living in Cairo. 

Unlike Russia, however, Egypt is not wedded to the Qadhafi loyalists to the same degree. It has been taking a very pragmatic approach since the end of last year, building ties with the GNA and other western Libyan groups and is preparing to open an embassy in Tripoli as it lost influence in the east. Cairo has also been working to reach an accommodation with Turkey but this will be limited if a Turkish military presence continues in Libya or if the dispute over maritime rights in the Mediterranean remains unresolved.

This excerpt is taken from our Libya Politics & Security weekly intelligence report. Click here to receive a free sample copy. Contact info@menas.co.uk for subscription details.

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