Following the failure so far of all the Peoples Democratic Party’s (PDP) attempts to broker internal peace, party members are now set for a critical date. On 24 May, the Supreme Court will rule on the appeal filed by Ahmed Makarfi’s faction against the decision by the High Court in Port Harcourt to affirm Ali Modu Sheriff as the party’s chairman. Before the Supreme Court hearing, the media reported on 7 May that the Makarfi faction has finalised plans to decamp en masse to a new party if the judgment does not favour them.

The new party — the Advanced Peoples Democratic Alliance (APDA) — is said to have already been registered with the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). The local media reported, on 14 May, that the Makarfi faction is seeking to use the APDA platform to contest the local government elections in Lagos State on 22 July if the Supreme Court favours the Sheriff faction.

Even though talk of a new party to absorb disgruntled PDP members is not new, a Supreme Court ruling in favour of Modu Sheriff’s faction will be a certain death knell for the PDP because the majority of its members have already indicated that they would not recognise Sheriff’s leadership of the party.

While some PDP members remain loyal to Sheriff, the PDP governors in the South South — excluding the Cross Rivers State members who are loyal to Sheriff — are most likely to seek an alternative platform if he is officially recognised as the party’s chairman. They are also likely to be joined by majority of the PDP governors in the South East.

The political environment has become very uncertain. With no provision for independent candidates in elections, political parties remain the only option to seek political office. The uncertain future of both the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and PDP, and the inability of the smaller parties to step in, has created a political vacuum and no one is sure who, or what, will fill it ahead of the 2019 elections.