Could junior officers be thinking of a military coup? This is the question agitating the minds of Nigerians since Chief of Army Staff Lieutenant General Tukur Buratai issued a statement on 16 May warning soldiers to stay clear of politics and politicians. Sources have told the media that senior army officials have information that some politicians have been approaching junior army officers for political reasons.

The reposting of senior army officers — announced on 10 May by the Nigerian army — has been linked to the rumours of a coup in the army. This reshuffling of army officers affects all key commands in the country. According to media reports, Acting President Yemi Osinbajo has been informed about the rumours of a coup but has been assured by senior military officers that the problem will be short lived.

However, there is a valid reason to fear the possibility of a military coup. There are many in the country, who may also be in the army, that are strong and passionate believers in President Muhammadu Buhari because of his perceived integrity and fight against corruption. Others believe that the president’s current illness is not from natural causes but that he has been poisoned by his political critics. These rumours have spread throughout the northern States (see Nigeria Politics & Security – 15.05.17) because there has been no government effort to dispel them. On the streets of Abuja, bonded copies of an article titled ‘How President Buhari was poisoned’ are being sold freely without the security agencies doing anything to stop its sales or provide any contrary information.

It would, however, be very difficult to successfully orchestrate a coup in the country unless the target was Acting President Osinbajo. People from the northern part of the country control all the key security agencies and now control the key divisions in the army. So it is practically impossible to stage an overthrow that is against the interest of the north without the backing of the military and security.

Nigeria has had 18 years of uninterrupted democratic rule since the transition from military to civilian rule in 1999. This is the first instance since then that the senior military wing has raised an alarm about a coup; this reflects the rising tension in the country caused by the prospect of the north prematurely losing another shot at power after the south has controlled the government for 13 of the 18 years of democratic civil rule. The rumours of a possible takeover may have been inflated but the possibilities of one occurring are very real.  … [article continues] …