Mexico’s elections — scheduled for 1 July — will largely be determined by these states: Mexico; Jalisco; Veracruz; Guanajuato; and Mexico City. These states have the largest number of registered voters so the candidates will adjust their campaigns accordingly to attract as many supporters in the final round.
During the past three presidential elections, each of the elected presidents has lured over two million votes from Mexico State, which is the most important, and also won the majority of total votes in the other three states and the capital.
Front runner Andrés Manuel López Obrador (a.k.a. AMLO) has headlined 62 public rallies in the four states and Mexico City while other candidates have held considerably less: Ricardo Anaya has held 17; and José Antonio Meade only seven.
It is also very likely that there will be a dramatic change in the composition of the 128 seat Senate and the 500 member Chamber of Deputies after 1 July. AMLO’s Movimiento Regeneración Nacional (MORENA) party will probably gain a significant number of seats in both parts of the National Assembly, winning a majority in the Senate and come very close to one in the Chamber of Deputies. This would provide an AMLO win with the necessary legislative majority to pass amendments and new laws.
At the same time, however, MORENA will need to form coalitions with PRI and PAN deputies — including their coalition member parties — in order for AMLO to successfully govern a country which has never had an opposition majority in both houses of Congress.
There are also voters’ electoral preferences. Mexico’s elections typically result in a sizeable proportion of voters traditionally picking one party for their presidential candidate and another for local deputies and senators. Such voting logic mostly applies for more the deputies who are mainly local candidates. That is why MORENA will have a greater chance of gaining a Senate majority rather than dominating the Chamber of Deputies, although, the possibility of a largescale MORENA victory is never out of the question.
The third debate could swing undecided voters, although only a minority of voters will change their minds just weeks before general elections.
Another less important, but traditionally relevant, issue will be vote buying. While traditionally it is a common practice in Mexico’s elections executed primarily by the PRI, there have been reports of vote buying from all sides of the political spectrum. Other party candidates may try to convince local populations with favours, food or consumer goods in order to win much-needed votes.