The Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF) was launched last week with virtual talks in preparation for the start of in-person negotiations in Tunis on 9 November. Its objectives are a final political settlement to the current conflict covering issues such as: elections; the arrangement for a unified national government; and control over key sovereign institutions such as the Central Bank of Libya (CBL). There is contention, however, over issues of transparency and the legitimacy of the 75 participants who were chosen by the UN for the LPDF. 

There is no shortage of scepticism about the LPDF by the Libyan people — who have seen previous attempts at dialogue fail — but they are also exhausted by years of conflict, militias, and foreign intervention). Despite cynicism, therefore, the talks are also being watched with highly guarded optimism as a possible return to some semblance of normality. 

Last week Prime Minister Fayez Serraj of the internationally-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) announced that, following lobbying from the UN and others, he was rescinding his offer to resign by the end of October. He said that he had been asked by ‘friendly countries’ to stay on until the end of the LPDF. There were fears that his departure could create a political vacuum in the factitious GNA coalition which could derail the political talks. 

The anticipated geographically-based power-sharing arrangement, which is likely to be negotiated at the talks, could help in the critical task of peace-making but could also entrench divisions in the longer term, as indeed the experience of such arrangements in other post-conflict countries has shown.

Meanwhile 12 more bodies have been exhumed from four more unmarked graves in Tarhouna, adding to the hundred or more already discovered since the town was recaptured by the GNA in June from the Libyan Arab Armed Forces (LAAF).

The GNA has announced that it will release two Russian political operatives who have been jailed for more than a year on charges of alleged election interference. This may signal a rapprochement between the GNA and Moscow which has been pro-actively supporting Khalifa Haftar and his LAAF forces. 

The National Oil Corporation (NOC) has lifted force majeure on the south-western Murzuq’ Basin’s El Feel oilfield which was the last site still closed by the LAAF’s eight-month blockade of oil exports. According to NOC chairman, Mustafa Sanalla, the country’s crude production has now reached 800,000 b/d and is expected to reach 1.3 million b/d by the beginning of 2021.

Egypt and Turkey are competing intensely for the Libyan market. Last week Egyptian trade officials denounced the dominance of Turkish products in western Libya as an extension of Ankara’s expansionist aims in the Arab world.

On 30 October the National Centre for Disease Control reported that the cumulative total number of positive COVID-19 cases in Libya had reached 61,095, with 857 deaths and 116,862 recoveries. A recent UN report detailed the hardships suffered by vulnerable populations in Libya as a result of the pandemic.