Libya’s Presidency Council launched a new anti-IS operation called ‘Storm of the Nation’ that aims to eliminate what is left of the Islamic State (IS) group from Libyan territory. It will focus in the north western part of the country and stretch from eastern Misrata (Checkpoint 60) to the suburbs of Bani Walid, as well as to Tarhouna, Msallata, Khoms, and Zliten.
Although many easterners greeted the anti-IS operation announcement with derision – given the Presidency Council’s limited military capabilities – it is a clear response to on-going fears about IS remnants in and around the area. Different stakeholders have discussed the threat IS poses, including to areas further east such as the Oil Crescent. Yet even when the group was at its peak — following its takeover of Sirte in February 2015 — it was never able to expand or pose a serious threat to the Oil Crescent’s energy infrastructure.
Nevertheless IS remnants can still inflict damage. In March the group claimed responsibility for two attacks in the country’s north eastern town of Ajdabiya. The first was a suicide bombing against forces allied to the Libyan National Army (LNA) and killed three in the blast. The second was a car bomb exploded at a checkpoint at the town’s eastern entrance, and killed six and wounded nine.
Where IS poses a greater threat is in the southern desert. Its lawless areas have long provided a refuge to militant groups of varying hues. IS remnants – believed to number around 200 – are currently active there. The lawlessness in the south, combined with the conflict in and around the south western city of Sebha, indicates that what is left of IS will have some traction in the area. The group is aided by the challenging terrain that makes tracking down its fighters extremely difficult.
IS does not currently have the capacity to extend its presence to the point where it can take over whole towns or areas. But with a new Anti-IS operation in place, it will continue to use the south to its advantage.
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