In response to President Donald Trump’s evident intention to put pressure on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the military organisation has stated that it will develop its missile capabilities at a ‘faster pace.’

Clearly, one of the reasons why Washington objects to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is that it has not addressed Iran’s expanding missile programme. All non-US signatories to the deal argue that the JCPOA had to stay focused on the nuclear issue in order to produce results.

The inclusion of any other topic of concern could have been detrimental to its practical success. Therefore, while the Trump administration will look for ways to limit Iran’s missile programme, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps will seek to undermine US interests in the region.

A number of international stakeholders believe that eventually Iran and the United States will have to find a way to address the missile issue – not as an amendment to the JCPOA but as a new multilateral initiative. Some analysts think that the issue could be discussed within the framework of potential future negotiations about a Middle East free of weapons of mass destruction.

If Trump continues his anti-Iran policy, however, it will make it more difficult to suggest any forum for new multilateral negotiations. Iran has always emphasised that its missile programme is the only deterrent that it has in regional and international relations.

Clearly, Trump’s strategy will justify even more intense missile development.

One can expect escalatory actions between the Trump administration and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, though military conflict between them is highly unlikely. Past patterns suggest that sanctions and proxy conflicts are more to be expected.

This article was taken from our monthly analytical paper Iran Strategic Focus. If you wish to discuss this topic with our consultants, or are in need of advice in regards to Iran, then please contact us.