In this months edition of Iran Strategic Focus, our consultants have picked out some of the key discussion points around the implications of the current Iran-US war of words and the fear that they could well reach a level of possible military confrontation.
- Donald Trump’s anti-Iran posture will further unite Iranian political forces and allow them to move forward with political decisions such as some rapprochement with regional countries, especially Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
- President Hassan Rohani’s government will continue to expose corrupt politicians and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders. This will create domestic tensions, but the top leadership will remain committed to the process as an attempt to increase its legitimacy.
- In anticipation of the re-imposition of US secondary sanctions in August and November, a growing number of large international companies will announce their withdrawal from Iran. While many are waiting to see whether waivers will be issued, business practices will certainly be adjusted.
- EU–Iran talks on the provision of guarantees to Tehran for its continued commitment to nuclear restrictions will continue as the two sides try to identify mechanisms that will be safe from US sanctions.
- On 5 August, the first wave of US secondary sanctions will be re-imposed. The development will unite the other international powers against the Trump administration. Closer co-operation between the European Union and China will offer financial routes to Iran, and EU–Russia co-ordination will facilitate an oil-for-goods scheme between Tehran and Moscow to keep Iranian oil flowing to market.
- Iran will accelerate the process of implementing legislation that it has committed to with the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), making the Iran–EU financial channel feasible.
- The European Commission will provide clear guidelines to European companies on how they will be protected in their efforts to do business with Iran.
This article was taken from our monthly Iran Strategic Focus. If you wish to discuss any of the information found above or your business relations in or with Iran with one of our consultants, then please contact us.