In the past few weeks, rumours have circulated that former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is planning to stage a coup d’état.

Ahmadinejad has been expressing strong criticism of the Iranian power structure, especially the judiciary, in response to the arrest of his close confidants Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei and Hamid Baqaei. In his most recent public statements, Ahmadinejad has even gone after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, accusing him and his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, of misappropriating US$190 billion of public funds.

So far, Ahmadinejad has focused on exposing corrupt practices at the highest level of the regime in an attempt to foment popular protest. His problem is that society at large sees him as another corrupt element within the regime, believing that his current objections are motivated by fear of being next in line to be arrested.

To make matters worse for Ahmadinejad, 43 former members of his two-term administrations have signed an open letter accusing him of having turned against the regime in the past year, and distancing themselves from their former president.

Having been isolated politically and with limited social support, Ahmadinejad’s only allies may be alienated Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders, which has led some analysts to think that these forces could push for a coup d’état to grab power from other constituencies.

The mainstream of the IRGC is well positioned within the power structure, however, and does not need Ahmadinejad to secure a place in the decision-making process.

Evidently, the domestic political structure is in an uncertain state, particularly with the current focus on what forms of power will emerge after Ayatollah Khamenei retires. Regional and other external threats are powerful enough, however, to drive key regime constituents to find common ground in order to sustain the Islamic regime.

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