While he praises Rohani for bringing inflation down to around 10%, Farshad Momeni, known as a religious-nationalist economist, warns that the price has been a ‘deep and unprecedented recession … As a result, we are witnessing the rapid shrinkage of the middle class and the unprecedented expansion of poverty.’
In Momeni’s view, current economic conditions ‘will have serious negative effects [on Rohani’s re-election prospects] because low-income citizens do not feel any improvement in their livelihood under Rohani whatsoever.’
Economist Nasser Imani, known as a political conservative, also emphasises that the cost of controlling inflation has been the deepening of recession. He notes that vulnerable social classes had high expectations for change as a result of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and that none of these have been met.
Even worse, asserts Imani, ‘were false expectations at the managerial level of government that the JCPOA would create huge economic opportunities and billions of dollars would quickly flow into the country’s economy. Once this did not happen, government officials at the highest level were left confused and things came to kind of a halt.’
He adds, ‘People vote for a person whom they think is capable of bringing change and improving their livelihood. As a result, the upcoming election will be the toughest an incumbent president has faced since the revolution. I’m not saying that Rohani will definitely lose … I’m saying that he will face a very difficult situation.’
To read the full report on the JCPOA ‘The letter versus the spirit: Will the JCPOA survive?‘ buy Septembers issue of Iran Strategic Focus – or, if you’re thinking of doing business in Iran why not subscribe to the publication for 6-12 months.
