Dates for Nigeria’s 2019 elections now set

Nigeria

Published on Tuesday, 10 October 2017 Back to articles

Abdulrahman Bello Dambazau and Buhari

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) set dates for the 2019 elections but neither main party appears ready. The presidential and National Assembly 2019 elections will be held on 16 February, 2019 while the gubernatorial and State Assembly 2019 elections will be held on 2 March, 2019. With the dates now officially recognised, active political positioning and campaigning is expected to start next year.

With around 16 months before the presidential election, neither of the two major parties have yet decided their presidential candidate. Based on tradition, the expectation would have been for the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) to present President Muhammadu Buhari for a second term. The uncertainty around his health — which APC sources have told Nigeria Politics & Security is unknown even to the most senior party hierarchy — has, however, clouded the prospect of him standing for second term.

One election option which is being considered by the party is asking Buhari to endorse Vice President Yemi Osinbajo to complete his second term with a northerner — most likely Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai as his running mate — who would become president after Osinbajo completes a single four-year term. This choice would, however, mean that the presidency would rotate between the South West and North West geopolitical zones  for a possible period of 12 years, at a time of heightened ethnic and regionalised agitations. While this option looks attractive on paper, it is likely to spark significant resistance from the other four regions.

It is alleged that Buhari has instead considered endorsing someone with a strong security background as a potential successor for the 2019 elections. In light of this, Minister of Interior Abdulrahman Bello Dambazau — a former Lt General and Chief of Army Staff from 2008-2010 — has been mentioned. Sources close to Aso Rock have told Nigeria Politics & Security that Dambazau is a likely choice because of Buhari’s conviction that the country needs a strong military individual to tackle the rising insecurity.

Buhari has always insisted that, without securing the country, there can be no development. But Dambazau’s record will work against him if he is endorsed because, instances of allowing the insecurity from Fulani herdsmen attacks; the rising number of kidnappings; and other forms of insecurity under his tenure in the Interior Ministry.

This article was taken from our weekly Nigeria Politics & Security publication. If you wish to discuss the content of this article, or have any other questions in regards to Nigeria then please contact us.

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