This is an excerpt from our monthly Libya Focus publication. 

The UN Special Envoy Ghassan Salamé revealed a proposed plan to bring together three key elements: amendments to the Libyan Political Agreement of December 2015; the adoption of a new constitution through a popular referendum; and fresh parliamentary and presidential elections.

Salamé’s optimistic plan was, however, short-lived because Prime Minister Fayez Serraj enraged Field Marshall Khalifa Haftar after he appointed Faraj Mohammed Mansour Qaim as the Government of National Accord’s (GNA) deputy interior minister. Qaim had defected from the Libyan National Army (LNA) to the GNA camp and is, therefore, a threat to Haftar’s ability to impose his will on Libya’s future security institutions. Serraj also appointed General Abdulrahman al-Taweel — formerly the leader of the GNA’s security arrangement committee in Tripoli — as acting Chief of Staff.

With Qaim‘s defection and new appointment, the loyalty of one of eastern Libya’s largest tribes is now extremely precarious. Relations between Haftar and the tribe had been tense for over a year, especially now that Serraj appointed the tribe’s Mahdi al-Barghathi as the GNA defence minister much to Haftar’s chagrin. Tribal members also more recently blamed Haftar for assassinating their chief in May and allowing Islamic State (IS) fighters to leave Benghazi and pose a threat to the tribe outside the city. Along with last week’s GNA appointments, this has provoked Haftar to respond with force.

On 1 September — the 48^th anniversary of the 1 September 1969 officers’ coup in which Haftar participated that brought in the Qadhafi regime — Haftar took actions that set back political dialogue after months of repair efforts by many international actors.

Haftar ordered LNA fighters to ignore Qaim, who appeared to be under threat as a result of the orders because he is based in Benghazi, to prevent any GNA official from entering territories under its control. Three pro-Haftar members of the Presidency Council in Tripoli — Fathi Majburi, Ali al-Qatrani and Omar Aswad — released a joint statement on 2 September accusing Serraj of violating the Libyan Political Agreement and the country’s sovereignty with his recent appointments.

Haftar’s weakness in eastern Libya is due to his concentration on westward and southward expansion. His loose alliances with powerful eastern tribes are increasingly vulnerable. Eastern sources have suggested that a new alliance could be forged without Haftar, diminishing his importance in the region. Haftar’s reaction to the GNA appointments also reveals divisions between the country’s security institutions. The fact that nearly half the Presidency Council spoke with a unified voice against Serraj last week also illustrates that the prime minister is incapable of action to defy Haftar’s interests without wreaking havoc within the GNA.