As 2018 swiftly approaches, Menas is launching annual forecasts to help clients plan for the year ahead.

The Forecast is a new section in each of our publications, providing forward-looking analysis and assessments in these key areas:

• Domestic politics and policy
• Economy
• International affairs
• Security
• Energy
• Other industry

If you would like to receive the full version of The Forecast: Nigeria 2018 then please contact the consultancy team

The Forecast: Nigeria 2018

Domestic politics and policy, the overview: 

If he can sustain his recovery from undisclosed ailments, President Muhammadu Buhari will run for a second term on the ticket of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

With the election due in the first quarter of 2019, Buhari’s political plans are geared to rebuilding the multi-regional and multi-party alliance that underpinned the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) at its birth in 2014.

Economy, the overview:

Vested interests and ideological quarrels between the presidency and senior ministers will hold back the introduction of market oriented reforms. But advocates of liberalising capital controls and regulations of energy pricing may be able to push through some incremental reforms to increase growth.

International affairs, the overview:

Nigeria’s size, complexity, and entrepreneurial energy make it an important ambassador – and especially if South Africa and Egypt continue their downwards trajectory. But Abuja’s diplomatic efforts rarely do justice to the country.

Security, the overview:

There is a risk that as Buhari turns his attention to local political matters in 2018, his much needed authority in the armed forces will wane. There are already signs of a resurgence of grand corruption in military procurement deals and deepening rivalries between such organisations as the Department of State Security and the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission.

Energy, the overview:

Two big developments are due in 2018. Aliko Dangote’s 650,000 b/d oil refinery and associate plant to produce petrochemicals and fertilisers will be commissioned, and the government stake in several joint venture companies will be sold, potentially generating US$10–70 billion.

Other industries, the overview:

The information technology sector will continue to grow rapidly in 2018 and 2019, as the country increases capacity despite the near total lack of government support.