As 2018 swiftly approaches, Menas is launching annual forecasts to help clients plan for the year ahead.
The Forecast is a new section in each of our publications, providing forward-looking analysis and assessments in these key areas:
- Domestic policy
- Security
- International affairs
- Economy
- Energy
- Other industry
If you would like to receive the full version of The Forecast: Libya 2018 then please contact the consultancy team
The Forecast: Libya 2018
Domestic politics and policy, the overview:
Libya’s fragmented political scene is unlikely to recover over the next year. The ailing peace process will drag on, with neither the House of Representatives nor the Higher State Council willing to risk walking away or to compromise enough to make progress.
Security, the overview:
Localised violence between powerbrokers can be expected to continue, with Derna, the Oil Crescent, and western Libya (particularly around Tripoli) being flashpoints. The south will also be characterised by ongoing violence and lawlessness.
International affairs, the overview:
Regional players, if no international pressure is brought to bear, will carry on stoking
the Libyan conflict in their own interests. Meanwhile the wider international community will persist
in backing the UN-led process, not least in the absence of an alternative plan.
Economy, the overview:
Continuing conflict, repeated disruptions to the energy sector, the absence of a genuine government or economic programme, and the draining of foreign exchange reserves together suggest that the Libyan economy will face difficulties throughout 2018. The situation is aggravated by the ongoing split in the Central Bank and the National Oil Corporation (NOC).
Energy, the overview:
Although the energy sector has seen some improvements over recent months – including increased oil production, renewed investor interest, and greater stability in and around the oil export terminals – the sector remains vulnerable to disruptions and stoppages. The Oil Crescent could be particularly badly hit in this respect.
