The Forecast: Iran 2018

Iran

Published on Thursday, 23 November 2017 Back to articles

As 2018 swiftly approaches, Menas is launching annual forecasts to help clients plan for the year ahead.

The Forecast is a new section in each of our publications, providing forward-looking analysis and assessments in these key areas:

  • Domestic politics and policy
  • Security
  • International affairs
  • Economy
  • Energy
  • Other industry

If you would like to receive the full pdf version of The Forecast: Iran 2018 then please contact Shayan Saeidi – shayan.saeidi@menas.co.uk

 

SAMPLE: The Forecast: Iran 2018

Iran is under pressure in domestic, regional, and international relations in ways that are unlikely to be resolved in the coming year even though the moderate forces around President Hassan Rohani will do their best to ease tensions.

Domestic politics and policy, the overview: 

To some extent, recent developments in regional and international relations have compelled the Iranian administration and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to show unity and to cooperate on regional issues.

Security, the overview: 

Iran generally has a positive track record on internal security. Though Tehran’s very active role in defeating the so-called Islamic State (IS) has made the country a target for extremist attacks.

Activities such as arrests of dual citizens and harassment of foreign businesses will remain on the agenda as these forces try to impose themselves on the overall political map.

International affairs, the overview: 

Since the implementation of the nuclear accord, also known as the JCPOA, Iran has been normalising relations with the rest of the world, especially the European Union.

That has made three international players unhappy. The United States, Israel, and Saudi Arabia are all concerned about the gradual empowerment of Tehran in the post-JCPOA phase and will continue to use all instruments at their disposal to antagonise Iran.

Economy, the overview:

The Iranian economy is now firmly in a growth cycle, though challenges such as unemployment and inflation remain. Above-average growth in the services sector, especially tourism, health tourism, and IT start-ups, could act as positive game changers in the employment outlook.

Energy, the overview:

The oil and gas sector remains the backbone of the economy. Iran has successfully recovered from the period of harsh sanctions, fully rehabilitating its oil production and export levels. That trend is set to continue in 2018 as production and export capacity expand.

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