A recent survey produced by Confederación Patronal de la República Mexicana (COPARMEX) employers’ federation revealed that nearly half of all of its 36,000 affiliated national business members reported that they suffered losses from crime or corrupt authorities in 2017. The most insecure states in the COPARMEX list were, in descending order: Tabasco; Guerrero; Quintana Roo; Zacatecas; and Puebla. The states that had the least crime reports were, in ascending order: San Luis Potosi; Queretaro; Chihuahua; and Mexico City.

As for corruption, Campeche heads the list followed by Tabasco, Quintana Roo, Chiapas and Sinaloa. COPARMEX affiliated businessmen also said that they believe the state government administrations of Yucatan, Guerrero, Chihuahua, Queretaro and Guanajuato are the best performing while the worst performing is Morelos State.

We believe that beyond these statistics, three badly performing states — which are not in the top five states according to COPARMEX — are Veracruz, Michoacán and Tamaulipas. All three have seen a dramatic surge in crime, including extortion against businesses, and the local business community has expressed its distrust in state authorities which have a track record of corrupt practices.

Menas Associates expects the scenario outlined by the COPARMEX poll to remain practically unchanged throughout 2018. In a new wave of murders and heightened cartel activity in Michoacán and Jalisco states — where turf disputes between cartels appear to be driving the spiralling murder rate — among a number of other security concerns, will challenge the upcoming political environment. In spite of the forthcoming elections, which will sweep the entire country from the municipal level all the way to the Presidency, we expect that new administrations at each level of government will not begin to deliver results until 2019.

This analysis is part of our new Mexico Politics & Security publication. If you would like to receive a free sample then please click on the tab below.