The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and other hard-line forces will continue to be the determinant voice in Iranian regional and security policies, although the country will continue its dual-track strategy of diplomacy and regional power projection.

The new Majles that begins in early June will consolidate the dominance of hard-line policies. There will be some competition between the various conservative factions, but the most likely next speaker will be Mohammad Baquer Qalibaf, former mayor of Tehran.

The government will continue its unprecedented sell-off of properties and company shares in order to manage the growing budget deficit. Considering that large share blocks on offer on the Tehran Stock Exchange are being acquired mainly by semi-state institutions, the balance of economic power will shift to the semi-state sector.

The government will continue redistributive measures to help lower-income households.

Iran will continue co-operating with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and engaging with the European Union to sustain the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). There seems to be an understanding between the remaining signatories that the agreement must survive until the US election in November offers the chance of revival, if Joe Biden becomes the next US president.

If Washington pressures the other world powers to re-impose an arms embargo on Tehran, in violation of the JCPOA terms, Iran is very likely to withdraw from the agreement and even from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

This excerpt is taken from Iran Strategic Focus, our monthly intelligence report on Iran. Click here to receive a free sample copy.