Conservatives in disarray in Iran

Iran

Published on Tuesday, 28 March 2017 Back to articles
Conservatives in disarray in Iran
Iran’s current president, Hassan Rouhani

In an attempt to find a unifying candidate ahead of the May 2017 presidential election, the county’s conservative political forces have fallen into disarray.

Evidently, Iranian conservatives understand how difficult it will be to defeat Hassan Rohani, who is supported not only by the reformist faction but also by centrists including the powerful Majles speaker, Ali Larijani. Key political figures are currently speaking of an unwritten coalition — between Rohani (including reformists and moderates) and Larijani (representing centrists) — that would easily attract the majority of votes.

Although the conservatives cannot afford to lose both the presidential and the local council elections, they have been unable to forge a united front despite creating the Front for Popular Islamic Revolutionary Forces — abbreviated as Jamna in Persian — to put in motion a process to identify one candidate.

That has failed miserably. The biggest blow to Jamna was that Larijani declined to participate in their initial meeting.

The biggest contenders

Despite Larijani’s cold shoulder, various Jamna meetings were held to create shortlists of potential candidates. The first contained 20 names, including all usual suspects, and that was then winnowed down to 10 names. Halfway through the process, several Jamna members spread the news that Ebrahim Raisi — the head of the Mashad-based Astan-e Qodse Razavi (AQR) — had been selected. Raisi is a cleric and a Seyed (descendant of Prophet Mohammad) who is close to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and could have unified the segments of the conservative camp.

Hours after the announcement, however, Raisi issued a statement that his focus was on ‘serving Imam Reza’ in Mashad and that he was not interested in running for president. That is understandable because a defeat against Rohani would put an end to Raisi’s ambition to succeed Khamenei.

In the meantime, Jamna has closed its process and ended up with a list of 14 potential candidates inclduing bioth some political heavyweights as well as some insignificant figures.

Besides Raisi, noteworthy candidates include: Tehran mayor Mohammad Baquer Qalibaf; former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili; former minister of culture Mostafa Mirsalim; and former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander-in-chief Mohsen Rezai, though none of these individuals would have sufficient support to beat Rohani.

Many against one?

There are signs that the conservative objective is to introduce many candidates in order to split the vote and force Rohani into a second round. If no candidate receives a minimum of 50% plus one vote, the top two must compete in a runoff.

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