As previously forecasted by Menas Associates, President Muhammadu Buhari has made the official announcement to his party that he will be seeking a second term in office as president. Buhari made his intentions known at the meeting of the National Executive Council (NEC) of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), held on 9 April, saying that he intended to inform the NEC first out of respect for the upper party caucus. He also stated that he is responding to a clamour from Nigerians to seek another term, but gave no further details about his second term ambitions. The president has already flown out of the country for what is going to be a two-week ‘official trip’ to the UK, which sources suggest is primarily for medical reasons.
Buhari’s official declaration will immediately spark an intense political campaign for the 2019 election. While his government has been increasingly criticised over the past two years, he still remains the man to beat in the 2019 election.
Buhari’s approval rating in March stands at 40%, while his disapproval rating stands at 42%. The president’s approval rating remains highest in the North East (66%) and North West (64%), and lowest in the South East (14%) and South South (16%). It is slightly higher in the North Central (27%) and South West (32%).
However, it is interesting to note that Buhari’s current job approval rating is lower than former president (2010-2015) Goodluck Jonathan’s in March 2014, less than a year before the 2015 elections.
These figures — which are approximations at best — suggest that Nigerians rate Buhari lower than his predecessor, whom Buhari defeated in the 2015 elections. But unlike Jonathan, Buhari’s strong support in the north — which also has the highest voting population and has traditionally had a higher voter turnout — gives him an edge in the 2019 elections. Anyone who hopes to overturn this advantage would require massive support from the other parts of the country where Buhari is less popular, but must also eat into the northern vote. For now, none of the leading opposition candidates look strong enough to achieve that.
Nevertheless, Buhari’s victory in the 2019 elections is by not guaranteed. There is strong opposition among influential individuals including former presidents (1999- 2007) Olusegun Obasanjo and (1985- 1993) Ibrahim Babangida who do not think Buhari is up to the task. Buhari also has to deal with internal party conflicts, which could see key figures in the APC defecting to other parties ahead of the 2019 elections. Concerns over his health are also likely to overshadow his campaign, and the next two weeks could be critical for his political future.
A more cohesive opposition will emerge in the next few weeks now that Buahri has made his intention to contest public. But whether Buhari is defeated or not will be determined by his health, his ability to unite the APC, whether he can make traction on some of country’s most difficult security and economic concerns, and the presence of a sizeable and strong opposition.
This article was taken from Nigeria Politics & Security. If you would like to discuss any of the content within this piece or questions you have regarding business in Nigeria then please contact our team.
A recent article of the same story was:
