The brutality of Tanzanian politics, and its implications for oil and mining investors

East Africa

Published on Thursday, 13 April 2017 Back to articles

Tanzania recently banned the export of goldcopper concentrates

Behind the country’s reputation for peace and stability, Tanzanian politics can be especially brutal, which is something that predates President John Magufuli. The implications for investors in sensitive sectors such as mining, and oil and gas, are real, as independent voices judge it prudent to remain quiet.

Hip-hop artist Roma Mkatoliki was kidnapped from a recording studio Wednesday 5 April. He is an opposition supporter with a record of criticising the ruling CCM’s governments.

His fellow artist Ney wa Mitego had also been arrested in March for releasing a song on social media which openly criticised Magufuli.

In the political environment, Ben Saanane — an assistant to the opposition CHADEMA coalition’s chairman Freeman Mbowe — has mysteriously been missing since November 2016.

The opposition party can also be guilty of such things. CHADEMA’s security officer Wilfred Lwakatare was caught on a hidden camera in 2013 discussing in detail how to kidnap a journalist.

These incidents create a lot of noise in the political scene but have real implications on what gets discussed publicly and what doesn’t. This can be clearly seen in the reaction to the ban on exports of goldcopper concentrates. The Publish What You Pay international NGO’s local affiliate, Hakirasilimali, has remained totally silent on the issue. This is unsurprising given that extractive industries’ issues have been ‘securitised’, both in the metaphorical sense by President Magufuli, but also in the very real sense of an active security services response.

The upshot of this for investors in the sector is that they can expect little in the way of public support from Tanzanian civil society organisations. In the past fortnight two international organisations have come out with strong evidence that counters the government’s explanation of the gold copper concentrates. Open Oil released a full revenue and fiscal model of the Bulyanhulu Gold Mine on 31 March. Their model suggests that Bulyanhulu Gold Mine might face closure if the ban remains in place, and that the government is currently losing approximately US$1 million a month from … [article continues]

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