The recent chain of events in the Sahel which saw, amongst other things, four US Special Forces killed in an ambush situation in early October, could have ramifications in Algeria.

The situation in the Sahel is covered in expert depth by our Sahara Focus monthly sister publication. The US has had around 100 or so Special Forces in the Mali-Niger region for some time which operate under different military commands to combat jihadist groups. These forces are now planning to ‘double down’ in the region alongside the French military forces with whom it is been working covertly since at least the start of 2017, and possibly earlier.

Our sources in the region and amongst the military network inform us that the American and French forces in Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso may be preparing to prioritise the elimination of key jihadist leaders over peacekeeping. The US is, for example, now believed to be in the process of arming its drones, rather than using them simply for surveillance.

The first target is likely to be Adnan Abu Walid al-Sahrawi, leader of the recently formed État islamique dans le Grand Sahara (EIGS or Islamic State in the Grand Sahara). Al Sahraoui’s group is not as significant as its name might sound. The biggest jihadist target in the Sahel is Iyad ag Ghali who is the overall leader of the now-combined jihadist groups, excluding al-Sahraoui’s EIGS. Iyad has, however, been closely associated with Algeria’s DRS (Department of Intelligence and Security) and its precursors since the late 1980s, which is the reason why he is still alive. Not only are he and his Ansar al-Din insurgency group protected by Algeria but there is an agreement that French and other troops in the Sahel will not cross into Algeria to either attack his ‘rear base’ or try and route him out.

France’s President Emmanuel Macron has indicated that he is not prepared to go on with this double game. Our sources are suggesting that the US has also grown impatient. The big question is whether the combined covert US-French force will decide to eliminate Iyad.

Many people see his elimination as the only way to end jihadism in the Sahel. Our view is that this is too simplistic, but it will certainly reduce its potency and also have positive security implications for southern Algeria.

When the US moved its troops into the Sahel in 2004, it was very dependent on Algeria. This is no longer the case, and some regional experts believe that the US — with or without France’s help — will now turn its sights on Iyad, irrespective of Algeria’s sensitivities on the matter. If this does happen, it will signal a radical shift in foreign policy by both the US and France towards Algeria and a major reconsideration of Algeria’s previously ‘hegemonic’ position in the region. It is a ‘high stakes’ decision, but one that Menas Associates believes is currently being discussed.

This article was taken from our monthly Algeria Politics & Security publication. For more information on this issue or to find out about past issues then please contact us.