With little over six months to go until the general elections in Kenya, the terror threat from Al-Shabaab and its affiliates remains serious. On 23 January, the town of Mandera became the victim of another coordinated attack, killing one police reservist. Just four days later, an unknown number of Kenya Defence Forces (KDF) soldiers were killed at their base in southern Somalia (near the Kenyan border), during an attack orchestrated by Al-Shabaab. The same day, what was purported to be an internal police memo started circulating on social media, claiming that Al-Shabaab was planning an attack on a Nairobi educational institution. The memo was most probably false.
Al-Shabaab’s activities in Somalia, north and eastern Kenya, remain a significant security threat to the region, but also to Nairobi. The risk of attack on high profile projects — such as the Early Oil Pilot Scheme — cannot be discounted.
Mandera, located in the north east, is a juncture where Kenya borders both Somali and Ethiopia. Since June 2016, there have been at least seven incidents in or around the town, both from firefights between KDF troops and Al-Shabaab fighters in the rural surroundings, and coordinated attacks on the town.
The 23 January attack was well coordinated and targeted outsiders, by attacking a guest house in the town. To slow the response, the attackers left three Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) on the street before attacking the guest house and a local bank. Nobody was injured in the initial attack, though a police reservist who responded was shot dead.
The 27 January attack on the KDF’s Kulbiyow base in Somalia was far more significant. The base lies just 50 kms north of Lamu, on the Somalian side of the border. The base is part of the African Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM) which is supporting Somalia’s stabilisation. Confusingly, KDF, Al-Shabaab, and the Somali National Army (SNA) all give differing accounts.
Menas Associates’ fortnightly East Africa Politics & Security will be following the Al-Shabaab security situation in Kenya closely.
