02.11.11 Brazil Focus
Lula's illness brings uncertainty into Brazilian politics
On 28th October, former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) was diagnosed with cancer of the larynx and immediately underwent
chemotherapy treatment at the Syrian-Lebanese Hospital in São Paulo. According
to his
doctors, Lula has a 90 per cent chance of making a full recovery. All of Lula's
official commitments including a loaded speaking agenda were cancelled through
to the end of January 2012.
Lula's illness has a series of political implications. He has lately been
travelling around the country, giving speeches and trying to build local
alliances for
his Workers' Party (PT) with a view to the municipal elections, which are to take place in October
2012. But for now his political campaigning has to cease, which will give other
campaigners a chance to redouble their efforts. The importance of these
elections is that the mayors of large cities usually have a great deal of
influence over
the process of nominations of candidates for presidential and legislative
elections, and could therefore have an impact on those of 2014.
While it is still an open question whether Lula or President Dilma Rousseff will be PT's candidate for the presidency in 2014, and Dilma is quietly
asserting her own credentials, the emotional factor raised by Lula's illness
cannot be
discounted. The Brazilian voter characteristically has sympathy for the
underdog, and Lula has become one by virtue of his cancer. He is also a legent
in the
minds of the poor and the downtrodden, and they constitute the majority of the
electorate, especially in the populous northeast, while the ascending middle
class
elsewhere in the country also ascribe their economic and social progress to
Lula's policies. Should he therefore decide to run in 2014, and be physically
able
to do so, he would most likely win the election by a landslide. And so somewhat
rather unexpectedly, an element of uncertainty has been introduced into
Brazilian
politics.
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© 2011 Menas Associates